Danish study on Toxic lot Variations

What can we deduce?

Click on the image to launch the study:

This analysis is getting a lot of buzz in my Twitter and I also wanted to throw my sombrero into the ring. Dr. Jessica Rose was quick on the draw mostly stating the obvious, that we can’t draw a definitive conclusion if we are not sure how many shots went into arms and only know many doses were “shipped”. Jessica recently updated her article because Max, one of the co-authors reached out to her with a reply. So it’s worth circling back to Jessica’s article see what clarifications Max made here:

Danish study on lot variation and associations with SAEs

So now I’m going to put p values and linear regressions aside for a minute, and ask try to answer some simple questions I have with the data we have? First, what were the lot#’s of those 52 Pfizer lot’s and how many of those reports were cross-walked into VAERS? I’d like to know the Lot# expiration date, but it’s probably not as important here considered the analysis only covers administration dates from Dec 2020 to Jan 11, 2022. Considering all the throttling (delay in report publication), it is prudent to know exactly when the Danish team last spooled the data from their Danish VAERS system, which I guess they call it DKMA. I will make this disclaimer now on lot expiration dates, although nothing was mentioned about expiration dates a fair “group” of lot#’s in this study still had viable and valid expiration dates when the snap shot of data was captured by the Danish team and demonstrated here:

As you can see, there was at least a dozen lot# that still had valid lot numbers by administration date Jan 11, 2022. That FD0932 jumps out with exp. 1/31/2022. It must be said that I’m using VAERS data up to data published on 4/14/2023, so it could quite possible that reports presented now in my visuals may not have even been published yet in VAERS or Denmark’s DKMA? However, since the vaersaware dashboards has filters for “drop date”, one could easily calibrate to the spot in time the Dutch team took their snap shot.

I have a couple more rhetorical questions, but let’s stop gilding the lily and give me a drum roll please….. dar she blows!

These are the 52 lots under analysis and thank you Josh for sharing with us, say hi to Max from me and please forward the team my blurbstack. Immediate disclaimer, I added the last two columns (% SAE’s & Relavtive Tox). The % SAE’s is simply the percentage of SAE’s versus all events as per the Dutch team. The Relative Tox is custom calculation yours truly created and has been using for a long time.

Lot Tox RVU Explained:

Priority Level

1) Death 2) Permanent Disability [PD] 3) Birth Defect/Anomaly [BD] 4) Life Threatening [LT] 5) Hospital 6) Emergency [ER] 7) Office Visit [OV] 8) None of Above [NOA]

Each VAERS report ID# is assigned a RVU of the highest level adverse event recorded for that report. A cumulative total of RVU for all reports is then divided by the total number of reports for that Lot number.

Example: Let use one of the most Toxic lots in the VAERS universe (032H20A) with lots that contain 200< reports. I call this one my Puerto Rican lot.

* Please notice there are 259 events for 240 total reports meaning 7.92% of the reports have more than one event level checked off. To rectify the variance vaersaware only assigns "1" event level per report. However for the sake of this explanation the RVU for this lot would be 2500*39 (Deaths), 2*425 (PD), 40*334 (HOSP), 30*195 (ER), 37*80 (OV), 111*11(NOA). This equals a total RVU count of 121,741 now divided by 240 reports equals 507.

This is a highly unusual lot generally speaking because on average, statistics show we expect to see more hospital, ER, and OV and PD's per death. What is more unusual of all is 25 of 39 deaths are from Puerto Rico.

Now that we know what LotTox RVU is and how to interpret, I present my vaersaware visuals and of the actual lot#'s apart of this Dutch analysis:

This next series of visuals in these 52 Pfizer lots in VAERS and regardless of country, and all event levels…

It looks like I will break this blurbstack analysis into two articles and I will resume with visuals on just “Denmark only”, but I want to answer one of my rhetorical questions above about expiration dates and snap shots in time. Hopefully I leave the Dutch team food for thought..? When filtering on these 52 Pfizer for just Denmark, and only for Vax Dates up to Jan 11, 2022, I can see by published date that reports kept coming out (getting published) well into November 2022… this is why one of my burning desire questions would be, at exactly what point did the Dutch team take their snap shots? More will be revealed! God Bless

This Analysis is on website blog here.